Staying able to act as costs rise
Edited by Aesvorn GmbH · 29 October 2026 · AV-F04
Why an economic outlook cannot replace a company’s own view of margins, cash flow and investment. A practical approach to planning under uncertainty.
The current development
The SNB summary published on 22 October 2026 reports robust revenue growth in company discussions. It also describes expected increases in purchasing, software and cloud costs and some longer delivery times. Not every sector showed the same momentum. These are findings from discussions with participating companies, not a complete survey of every business.
Aesvorn’s assessment
Mixed signals call for focused management. Growing revenue can coincide with rising purchasing costs, faster wage growth or greater delivery effort. Higher inventory and longer payment terms can create financing needs before invoices are paid. Broad cost cutting can weaken essential capabilities; postponing every decision can also be expensive.
Separate three questions: Is the work profitable? When does cash arrive or leave? Which investment is necessary, and which can wait? Start with a small number of meaningful figures and clearly labelled assumptions.
A simplified margin example
Fictional figures in CHF: revenue of 100,000, variable costs of 60,000 and fixed costs of 30,000 produce a result of 10,000. If variable costs rise by 10% to 66,000, the result falls to 4,000. A 3% price increase raises revenue to 103,000 and the result to 7,000.
Sales volume, scope and fixed costs are held constant. Taxes, financing and timing differences in payments are excluded. This is a calculation example, not a forecast. In practice, demand, cost structure and payment dates may also change.
Assess profit and cash flow separately
Revenue growth can tie up more money in stock. A profitable order may require a long period of financing. Review when invoices are issued, payments are expected and supplier bills or payroll become due. A price adjustment must also be checked against customer demand and contract terms.
Plan the next quarter with three scenarios
Baseline
Record the most plausible assumptions for demand, purchasing costs, delivery effort and payment dates. Name the source, date and owner of each important assumption.
Adverse scenario
Consider a realistic combination of lower orders, higher costs or delayed receipts. Identify which decisions become necessary and how much time remains to act.
Favourable scenario
Check whether additional demand can be delivered with the available people, capacity and financing. Higher demand is valuable only when the business can serve it sustainably.
Agree the decision triggers
Define the deviation that leads to a price review, revised spending, discussions about payment terms or a changed investment schedule. Each trigger needs an owner, a data source and a review date. Suggested thresholds are management choices to adapt, not universal limits.
Use the same assumptions at the next review and explain material changes. The purpose is to make decisions revisable as evidence improves. Related worksheet: AV-A05, Planning the next quarter with scenarios.
Source and editorial responsibility
Swiss National Bank summary, 22 October 2026 – company discussions and economic assessment.
Source accessed on 29 October 2026. Aesvorn’s calculations and suggested approach are editorial content, not an SNB recommendation. The example is fictional.
Using this information
This article provides general information and non-binding practical guidance. It does not replace individual legal, tax, financial or social insurance advice and has not been reviewed by a lawyer. No guarantee is given for completeness, currency, accuracy, suitability in a particular case or legal effectiveness. Users must check and adapt the content to their circumstances and applicable requirements. To the extent permitted by law, Aesvorn GmbH excludes liability for losses arising from use. Mandatory liability, including for intent and gross negligence, remains unaffected. This notice does not guarantee a complete exclusion of liability. Examples are fictional business situations, not documented client cases.
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